Fossil fuel phase-down: trends by fuel and policies to accelerate implementation

Electricity is the now the fastest growing form of energy, and growth in electricity was fully matched by growth in renewables for the first time in 2025. As progress continues clean energy will not just meet rising energy demand, but displace overall demand for fossil fuels. Under the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which reflects government policies already adopted or put forward, global demand for coal begins to decline before the end of this decade, oil peaks around 2030, while gas demand reaches a plateau by the mid-2030s2. Other analyses, including those from Shell, a leading oil and gas company, project oil demand peaking in the early 2030s. These are not net-zero aspirations. They reflect what is already being driven by the cost competitiveness and deployment momentum of clean energy technologies under current policy settings. This briefing note provides much needed analytical clarity on which sectors consume fossil fuels today, and assesses plausible demand pathways from a range of scenarios.