New report by Renewable Carbon Initiative evaluates pathways to a net-zero chemical industry by 2050

A Sector on the brink of change

Chemical and plastics industries are integral to modern life, but their reliance on fossil carbon poses a significant environmental challenge. By 2050, the global production of chemicals and plastics is expected to nearly triple compared to 2020 levels. However, the journey to net-zero emissions requires a dramatic reduction in fossil carbon dependency, with a focus on alternative sources like biomass, carbon capture and utilization (CCU), and recycling.

While the transition is global, the pace varies. In Europe, growth in chemical production is projected to remain modest due to market saturation and a stable population. Meanwhile, Asia and Africa are expected to drive the global increase, reflecting their burgeoning demand for chemical products.

Renewable feedstocks: cornerstone of net-zero

Central to the transition is the shift to renewable carbon feedstocks. Biomass, CCU, and recycling have emerged as the three pillars of the industry's future. Biomass is set to play a major role, with wood, agricultural residues, and biogenic waste identified as key sources. Starch and sugar-based feedstocks, while still relevant, are expected to decline in importance due to sustainability concerns.

CCU, another promising avenue, aims to transform captured carbon dioxide into valuable feedstocks. However, its adoption is fraught with uncertainties. While some scenarios project CCU as a cornerstone of the chemical industry, others view it as less viable due to technological and economic barriers.

Recycling, particularly for plastics, is projected to dominate the feedstock mix. By 2050, recycled materials are expected to account for 42% of the plastics sector’s inputs. Mechanical recycling will continue to play a key role, but chemical recycling methods, such as depolymerization and pyrolysis, are gaining attention for their ability to handle complex waste streams.

Plastics and the broader chemical industry

The report draws a distinction between the plastics sector and the broader chemical industry. Plastics are poised to lead the charge in feedstock circularity, relying heavily on recycling to replace fossil-based inputs. In contrast, the chemical industry's transformation will rely more evenly on biomass, CCU, and recycling. Notably, CCU is expected to contribute a greater share in the chemical industry than in plastics, reflecting its potential in high-value chemical production.

Despite the differences, a common theme emerges: the declining reliance on fossil carbon. Across all scenarios, fossil feedstocks are projected to shrink drastically, with some scenarios achieving complete defossilization. Where residual fossil inputs remain, they are often paired with carbon capture and storage (CCS) to mitigate emissions.

Technological innovation

Achieving net-zero emissions will require a technological overhaul of the industry. Electrification of chemical processes is seen as a cornerstone of decarbonization. However, scaling technologies such as electrically heated steam crackers remains a formidable challenge. Other innovations, like methanol-to-olefins processes and advanced chemical recycling techniques, are also critical for the sector's transformation.

Biomass-based methanol and alternative naphtha are identified as promising feedstocks for basic chemicals. These can be converted into essential building blocks like olefins and aromatics, forming the backbone of the industry’s renewable feedstock base.

Policy support is critical

The report underscores the need for robust policy frameworks to facilitate the transition. Investment incentives, regulatory mandates for recycling, and support for renewable energy infrastructure are highlighted as crucial. Without coordinated efforts from governments, the private sector, and research institutions, achieving net-zero emissions will remain an elusive goal.

Roadmap

The RCI’s evaluation provides a comprehensive roadmap for the chemical industry’s transformation. While challenges abound—ranging from technological maturity to economic feasibility—the direction is clear. A shift toward renewable carbon feedstocks, coupled with recycling and innovative processes, is not just an environmental imperative but a strategic necessity for the industry’s future.

The findings are complemented by visual representations of feedstock trends. Figures reveal a steady decline in fossil feedstock reliance, replaced by a mix of biomass, CCU, and recycled materials. These trends underline the industry’s collective commitment to a sustainable future, even as individual scenarios vary in their assumptions and projections.

The chemical industry stands at a crossroads. As the clock ticks toward 2050, the choices made today will define the sector’s legacy for decades to come.

Source: (Harrandt et al. 2024); Harrandt, J., Carus, M., vom Berg, C., 2024: Evaluation of Recent Reports on the Future of a Net-Zero Chemical Industry in 2050