“7 certainties about energy for this age of uncertainty”

19/01/2026
News

The energy sector is contending with uncertainties, complicating the work of policymakers, business leaders and investors. “Geopolitical twists and turns are straining long-established relationships and upending deeply held assumptions. The World Uncertainty Index, devised by economists from the IMF and Stanford University, has hit unprecedented levels in recent months. But in this time of flux, there are still some important trends that we can identify with some confidence”, writes IEA-Executive Director Fitah Birol in a recent commentary. 

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  1. The world has entered the Age of Electricity. Oil and gas will still be widely used for many years to come, but the use of electricity is growing twice as a fast as overall energy demand.
  2. Renewables will keep growing. Despite significant headwinds, renewables are meeting a large amount of the rising demand for electricity in many countries around the world, often because they are the most competitive option.
  3. Nuclear power is making a comeback. After a series of setbacks in the 2010s, nuclear is on the rise again, as the IEA predicted some four years ago. It generated more electricity than ever before in 2025. 
  4. Energy security risks are multiplying, especially for critical minerals. Traditional hazards affecting the security of oil and gas supplies are now accompanied by vulnerabilities in other areas – including electricity security and critical minerals. 
  5. States are taking the reins. As energy is elevated to a matter of economic and national security, so governments are increasingly intervening to shape outcomes, rather than leaving them to the market.
  6. We are shifting to a ‘buyer’s market’ for key fuels and technologies. Oil prices have already come under pressure because of relatively abundant supply, and the same will soon be true in natural gas markets. There is also ample manufacturing capacity for batteries, solar panels and other technologies.
  7. New players are increasingly driving global energy trends. The centre of gravity in the world’s energy markets is shifting as a group of emerging economies, led by India and Southeast Asia and joined by countries in the Middle East, Latin America and Africa increasingly shape energy market dynamics.

Source: iea